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Diagnosing the Hidden Cost of Performance

A visual guide to value leakage, hidden cause and effect, and how enterprise visibility turns silent losses into captured value. Insights from Oliver Wight’s Gartner Supply Chain Symposium presentation.

Your organisation is performing well. Value is still leaking.

You hit the targets. Protected the margin. Delivered the plan. And yet something still feels harder than it should.

Oliver Wight’s April 2026 leadership survey found that 63% of leaders recognise understanding where value is gained or lost as a challenging area, and only 2% describe themselves as very confident they can see it clearly.

The tension is the signal

Gartner research published in Harvard Business Review found that in 2022, employees experienced 10 planned enterprise changes per year, up from two in 2016. Willingness to support change collapsed from 74% to 43% over the same period.

Your people are not resistant. They are exhausted. And exhausted people cannot see value leaking.

Success creates the blind spots leaders can’t see

When an organisation performs reliably, leadership attention shifts. That is precisely when blind spots form. Past decisions become normalised. Informal confidence overrides prepared insight. The strategy sounds right. Delivery looks busy. Outcomes still disappoint.

Value doesn’t disappear – it leaks

Think of it like a river. Your strategy identifies a £100m opportunity. Optimism in the business case narrows it to £80m. Stage-gate delays cut it to £40m. Execution misalignment across functions delivers £20m. The ambition was real. The leakage was structural – and almost entirely invisible at every stage.

Most executives would say they have a clear picture of where performance is strong and where it isn’t. The data tends to suggest otherwise. The gap between what leadership believes is visible and what is actually visible is, itself, where value leaks.

Why value leaks – and why it stays hidden

Most businesses have X-rays. They need a CT scan.

KPI dashboards, financial reports, and operational reviews show symptoms based on what is already known. By the time finance shows the true gap, the decision that caused it is already locked in. Our survey found that 78% of organisations recognise their planning processes as ineffective at revealing value leakage, clearly identifying the need for some type of improvement.

Most value loss does not sit inside individual functions. It sits between them – in the unmanaged space between strategy and execution, planning and delivery, local optimisation and enterprise outcomes. When asked where the greatest unrealised value opportunity lies, 41% of leaders in the same survey pointed to cross-functional decision-making, ahead of technology, data, and every other option.

The three places it hides

  1. Bias in planning: Optimism in demand plans and business cases leads to persistent over-forecasting and under-delivery. The numbers look plausible. The outcomes consistently disappoint.
  2. Aggregate thinking: Planning at the wrong level of granularity can make the mix wrong even when the total looks fine. You hit the revenue line. You built the wrong stock.
  3. Broken feedback loops: Execution never informs planning. The same misalignments repeat, quarter after quarter, because no one has visibility of what is actually causing the gap. Most businesses have X-rays. They need a CT scan.

Leaders lack the enterprise visibility they need most

DDI’s Global Leadership Forecast 2025, surveying nearly 11,000 leaders across 50 countries, found leaders identified their two most significant skill gaps as setting strategy and managing change – the capabilities they are traditionally supposed to excel at. Our survey sharpens the picture further: 79% of supply leaders say they are unclear on decision ownership, compared to 44% of other executives.

This is no coincidence. In an increasingly volatile, uncertain and disruptive world, the C-suite is being pulled deeper into day-to-day crisis management. And when leadership is consumed by what is urgent, no one is steering towards what matters. The ship moves, yet the destination drifts.

Seeing beyond one dimension

Oliver Wight’s Enterprise Business Model connects cause and effect across the full enterprise. Built around 24 key competencies, it spans interconnected layers from strategy through to execution – breaking down the functional silos that allow value to leak unseen. It is not another KPI layer. It is the CT scan: it shows how decisions, behaviours and outcomes interact beneath the surface, and where value is escaping between functions.

  • Strategise – Clarify what success looks like and connect strategy to execution from day one – aligning vision, objectives and ownership across the organisation
  • Understand – Design the right planning approach using data, insight and behavioural analysis to uncover root causes, performance gaps and the cultural blockers that keep them in place
  • Align – Bring leaders together around a shared plan – breaking down silos, building ownership and embedding the behaviours that turn agreement into action
  • Deliver – Integrate systems, teams and decision-making to enable consistent execution, with clear mechanisms to monitor, respond and improve. When the unseen cause and effect becomes visible at each of these levels, resolution and accountability become possible.

How to protect value once you can see it

Diagnosis alone doesn’t change outcomes

MIT’s NANDA research found 95% of AI pilots failed to deliver measurable ROI. The barrier was not technology. It was leadership’s inability to change decision-making behaviours – and hold the change in place once it had started.

Our own leadership survey found that 38% of organisations are investing primarily in technology to address the performance gap, yet only 8% are investing in leadership governance and decision-making, the area where most value leakage actually originates.

Without structure, organisations revert. In business, that shows up as expediting, local optimisation and heroic firefighting – the same patterns that created the leakage in the first place.

This is what The Proven Path® exists to do

Oliver Wight’s Proven Path® is an integrated change methodology that has helped organisations close the gap between ambition and outcome for decades. It does not start with process. It begins with people, and it works in three stages.

  • Engage to lead: From ambition to ownership. Leaders go first – changing their own decision-making behaviours before asking others to follow.
  • Enable to change: Decision confidence under pressure. Build the capability to see cause and effect clearly and hold ownership where it actually sits.
  • Embed to own: Value locked through governance, accountability and a mutual ownership of outcomes. New behaviours become the default – not because they are mandated, but because they are shared. Reversion stops when the common vision is genuinely held.

The Proven Path® doesn’t just help organisations change. It changes organisations.

From hidden cost to captured value – this is how it happens

Do you know where value is leaking in your organisation?

If your answer isn’t a firm yes, that is where to start. Every quarter without visibility is a quarter of compounding loss.

Three principles:

  1. Think end-to-end. Map the flow from strategic ambition to operational outcome. Where does the river narrow?
  2. Diagnose before treating. Use the Enterprise Business Model as your CT scan. Find where cause and effect are disconnected – and who owns the resolution.
  3. Build the guardrail, not just the goal. The Proven Path® exists to embed new decision-making behaviours and ensure they hold under pressure.

 

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Your organisation is likely losing value - and you may not see it.

Watch our animated video to learn how leaders can uncover and fix value leakage.
About the author Andy Walker Partner and CEO

Andy Walker has over 25 years of experience in a diverse range of business disciplines. With a background in finance, demand, and supply chain management, he has delivered substantial gains for clients in efficiency, cost reduction, and customer service.

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